Elevated police turnover following the summer of George Floyd protests: A synthetic control study

Abstract

Abstract Research summary Several of the largest U.S. police departments reported a sharp increase in officer resignations following massive public protests directed at policing in the summer of 2020. Yet, to date, no study has rigorously assessed the impact of the George Floyd protests on police resignations. We fill this void using 60 months of employment data from a large police department in the western United States. Bayesian structural time‐series modeling shows that voluntary resignations increased by 279% relative to the synthetic control, and the model predicts that resignations will continue at an elevated level. However, retirements and involuntary separations were not significantly affected during the study period. Policy implications A retention crisis may diminish police departments’ operational capacity to carry out their expected responsibilities. Criminal justice stakeholders must be prepared to confront workforce decline and increased voluntary turnover. Proactive efforts to improve organizational justice for sworn personnel can moderate officer perceptions of public hostility.

Publication
Criminology & Public Policy

Summary

Police officers quit their jobs at nearly three times the normal rate following the widespread protests after George Floyd’s death in 2020, according to a study that tracked employment data from a large police department over five years. While retirements and firings remained steady, voluntary resignations spiked by 279% and are predicted to stay high, creating a staffing crisis that could affect departments' ability to respond to crime and serve communities. This finding suggests that periods of intense public scrutiny and criticism can trigger significant workforce losses in policing, forcing police leaders to find new ways to retain officers and maintain public safety operations.

(AI-generated summary, v1, January 2026)

Citation Information

Citations: 137 (as of January 2026)

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