The Unintended Consequences of State-Level Drug Decriminalization Laws: Implications for Arrest and Crime Rates

Abstract

On February 1, 2021, Oregon passed “Measure 110,” which decriminalized the possession of small amounts of many illicit narcotics. On February 25, 2021, in State V. Blake (“Blake”), the Washington State Supreme Court declared the state’s simple possession of controlled substances law unconstitutional, and previous related convictions were now invalid. This study executes a quasi-experimental design to examine the impact of Oregon’s and Washington states’ shifts to drug decriminalization on serious violent and property crime and arrests. Using 23 NIBRS compliant control states, we estimate a series of canonical two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models. At the state level, Oregon and Washington experienced significant increases in most serious violent and property crime. City-level analyses largely align when examining Portland and Seattle against 72 large control metropolises. We also found evidence that these state-level increases in crime rates were largely driven by Portland and Seattle, indicating a concentration of harm within large metropolises. Unlike crime rates, arrest rates showed more nuance. Using synthetic control methods, the results of the main analyses were largely confirmed. State-level changes in drug policy may affect arrest and crime trends within those states. Locales contemplating similar policies should consider the potential impact on public safety before adoption.