Risk and Public Judgments on Police Pursuits: A Nationally Representative Conjoint Experiment

Abstract

Police vehicle pursuits highlight a central tension between law enforcement imperatives and public safety. While modern policies emphasize balancing apprehension needs against risks of continuation, little is known about whether public intuitions mirror this framework. We address this gap using a nationally representative conjoint experiment (N = 3,334) that varied eleven contextual factors across randomized pursuit scenarios. Respondents rated perceived risk, indicated whether pursuits should be terminated, and made forced-choice tradeoffs. Across all outcomes, high-risk situational factors (e.g., high speeds, adverse weather, heavy traffic, urban settings, etc.) increased perceived danger and termination support, while more serious underlying offenses, particularly violent felonies, reduced it. These patterns align with the proportional balancing logic embedded in contemporary policy and training. Findings suggest restrictive, risk-sensitive pursuit policies are broadly consistent with public expectations, though tolerance for risk in violent felony cases may limit support for outright prohibitions.