The Killing Cascade: More Officers, More Wounds, More Deaths in Police Shootings

Abstract

Research Summary. The probability that a civilian will die rises markedly when more than one officer discharges their firearms, but prior studies have largely failed to account for the number of officers firing or the anatomical location of wounds. We analyzed 3,715 officer-involved shootings in Texas (2015–2024) and California (2016–2024) using linear probability models with progressive controls. Each additional officer firing was associated with a 3.14 percentage point increase in fatality risk (pooled estimate = 3.14 pp, 95% CI: 2.32–3.97; N = 3,519), and roughly 45.1% of this effect operated through wound count. We term this progression—more officers, more rounds, more wounds, more deaths—the killing cascade, consistent with a “contagious fire” mechanism in which peer gunfire triggers additional rounds. In California, where wound data were available, wound location was the single most powerful predictor of fatality and did not differ by race ((6) = 7.56, p = .27). The Black coefficient was not significant in any California specification, though in Texas—where wound location is unobserved—Black civilians had a significantly lower probability of fatality (-7.02 pp, p = .03). Policy Implications. If multi-officer shootings carried single-officer fatality rates, an estimated 272 deaths—12.5% of all fatalities across both states—would not have occurred. A more conservative scenario—reducing the number of officers firing by one per encounter, as contagious fire training aims to achieve—would have prevented an estimated 138 deaths. Training protocols addressing fire discipline and coordination in multi-officer encounters may reduce fatality risk. Mandating wound location reporting, currently required only in California, would enable systematic monitoring of shooting outcomes and inform evidence-based policy.